Building a Dynamic Manpower Planning Model: Focused on the Information Security Manpower Policy of Korea

The ability to forecast manpower requirements is crucial for an industry. On the demand side, companies rely on these forecasts to formulate their manpower planning strategies, while, on the supply side, they provide job seekers with a basis to assess the attractiveness of a given sector. Forecasts of supply and demand for manpower also make an important contribution to the governmental policy-making process by serving as pointers, to avoid redundant investments and achieve efficient and balanced growth for an industry. Meanwhile, forecasts based on an inaccurate market analysis can be a cause for imbalances such as undersupply or oversupply of labor. Static and unilateral analyses are the most common culprits for erroneous predictions of supply and demand for manpower. In this paper, we elaborate a model of manpower supply and demand for the information security industry, one of today’s fastest-growing sectors, using the system dynamics method. Using this model, we will predict how the labor supply in Korea’s information security industry will evolve in the coming years, determine causes for any demand/supply imbalances and propose solutions to resolve these imbalances from a dynamic perspective.